The Two Permits Between Belvedere and Its First New Lagoon Homes in Twenty Years

On July 15, 2026, the City of Belvedere issued a demolition permit for Mallard Pointe, the 40-residence redevelopment that will replace 22 duplex units built in 1951 along the lagoon's edge. Developer Thompson Dorfman Partners LLC could finally serve tenants with formal notices to vacate. Six years of hearings, appeals, and planning review had produced an approval, and the approval had produced a permit.

Nothing can be torn down yet.

A second permit, covering the bulkheads that separate the lagoon from dry land and guard against erosion, remains under city review. Under the conditions attached to the demolition permit, bulkhead replacement has to start within 14 days of demolition beginning and finish by October. But demolition itself cannot legally begin until that bulkhead permit clears. At a July 9 community meeting, the city's housing attorney, Barbara Kautz, told residents that once the conditions of approval are met, the city has no choice: "If the conditions of approval have been met, the city is required to issue the demolition permit." She added that a refusal would expose Belvedere to real risk, since the city "could be subject to pretty severe penalties." Mayor Sally Wilkinson made the same point from a different angle, saying councilmembers are "bound to follow the law" and carry "fiduciary responsibilities to the city" that rule out unnecessary legal exposure.

That is the story underneath the story. Everyone watching Mallard Pointe is asking when the new homes arrive. The more useful question, for anyone who owns or is buying on the lagoon, is what this permit sequence reveals about how any waterfront project in Belvedere actually moves.

What's Being Built, and When

The redevelopment sits on the parcels at 1 through 22 Mallard Road, between City Hall and the lagoon. The project replaces the existing 22 market-rate rental duplexes with 40 new residences: a 23-unit apartment building, 16 single-family and duplex units, and one accessory dwelling unit. Four of the new units must stay affordable to low- and very-low-income households for 55 years, and the project represents a net gain of 18 units toward Belvedere's state housing obligations.

Tenants received formal notice with a 60-day clock once the permit came through, putting move-out around mid-September 2026. After that window closes, Thompson Dorfman has 75 days to complete demolition, assuming the bulkhead permit has cleared by then. Reporting on the project's timeline points to a tentative subdivision map that now runs through March 19, 2027. Sales timing for the new single-family and duplex homes has not been announced.

Put plainly: the permit that made headlines in July started an eviction clock, not a construction clock. Anyone budgeting a purchase around these homes should treat "sales timing not yet announced" as the operative fact, not the demolition permit date.

Why a Small Number of New Homes Can Move an Entire Market

Belvedere covers about half a square mile and holds fewer than 1,000 residences total, spread across two islands and an artificial lagoon. The lagoon itself, a private 66-acre body of water maintained by the Belvedere Lagoon Property Owners Association, is ringed by roughly 260 private residences. That is the entire comp set a lagoon appraisal draws from.

Now look at how thin the actual sales activity is inside that comp set. As of February 2026, the most recent month with reported sales data, the median sale price for a home in Belvedere was $6.8 million, up 32.5 percent from a year earlier. Homes were selling in 10 days on average, down from 25 days the year before. But only three homes sold that month, up from just one the year before. A market moving from one sale to three is not a trend line. It is a handful of transactions doing the work of a trend line.

Here is where it gets genuinely strange. Over that same period, one widely used estimate-based home value index for Belvedere showed values down 4.3 percent year over year, even as the median sold price on actual closed transactions was climbing sharply. Two measures of the same tiny market, pointing in opposite directions in the same window. That is not a data error. It is what happens when a modeled valuation meets a market where three or four closings can outweigh everything else in the average.

This is the mechanism that makes Mallard Pointe consequential beyond its own footprint. Sixteen new single-family and duplex homes, built to a single design standard and sold within a compressed window once sales begin, will not just add inventory. In a comp set this small, they will function as fresh, verified pricing data for the entire lagoon, arriving all at once instead of trickling in one sale at a time. Whatever price per square foot those homes clear at will likely become the reference point against which existing lagoon-front listings get measured, for better or worse, simply because there has been no comparable new construction to benchmark against in more than twenty years.

The Permit Nobody Outside Belvedere Is Watching

The bulkhead permit is easy to overlook because it sounds like a technicality. It is not. Belvedere has spent years on a formal seawall and levee resiliency effort because the lagoon and its surrounding shoreline face real exposure to storm surge and sea level rise, and the city keeps flood-zone elevation certificates on file specifically because so much of the waterfront sits in a FEMA-designated flood hazard area. Bulkhead work is where that broader resiliency concern meets an individual project's construction schedule, and the two do not always move at the same pace.

For Mallard Pointe, that means the demolition permit everyone read about in July is not the last gate. It is the second-to-last gate, sitting in front of a bulkhead review that has its own timeline and its own risk of delay.

For any current lagoon owner, the lesson travels well beyond this one project. If you are planning dock work, a bulkhead repair, or any shoreline improvement on your own property, expect it to run on a separate review track from your main building permit, not folded into it. Budget the extra review time as its own line item, not as a rounding error on the main project schedule.

What This Means Depending on Where You Sit

If you already own on the Belvedere Lagoon, the arrival of verified new-construction pricing is worth watching closely rather than reflexively. A market this thin does not absorb new comps quietly. When the Mallard Pointe single-family homes eventually close, expect appraisers and buyers alike to reference them directly, whether your home resembles them architecturally or not. That can work in your favor if the new homes clear at strong numbers, and it can complicate a listing if they come in below expectations for the location.

If you are watching from outside, hoping to buy one of the new lagoon homes once they list, patience needs to be paired with realism. Sales timing has not been announced, the subdivision map runs through March 2027, and the bulkhead permit alone could push the physical schedule further. Belvedere's broader transaction culture also leans quiet. A meaningful share of sales here happen off-market, and pricing power sits firmly with sellers in a supply-constrained city like this one. Waiting for a public listing may mean waiting past the point when the best opportunities have already changed hands quietly.

A Few Questions Worth Asking Before You Act

When will the new Mallard Pointe homes actually be for sale? Not yet announced. The demolition permit only started the tenant relocation clock. Construction cannot begin until the bulkhead permit clears, and the subdivision map runs through March 2027.

Does buying on the Belvedere Lagoon come with flood-related disclosure requirements? Much of the lagoon and Beach Road shoreline sits within a FEMA-designated flood hazard area, and flood insurance is handled separately from a standard homeowners policy. The city keeps elevation certificates on file for flood-zone projects, which is worth reviewing during due diligence on any waterfront parcel.

What does a bulkhead permit actually cover? It governs the walls separating the lagoon from the land and protecting against erosion. On the Mallard Pointe project, bulkhead work has to start within 14 days of demolition beginning and finish by October, but the permit for that work sits on its own review track, separate from the demolition and construction approvals.

Belvedere rewards buyers and sellers who understand these mechanics before they matter, not after. If you are weighing a move on the lagoon, whether you are pricing a sale against homes that do not exist yet or trying to time a purchase around a construction schedule that has already shifted once, RARE Properties Northern California can walk the specifics with you. Discover what's RARE about your home. Schedule a private consultation.